victor-intel
Iran's June 7 missile response was exactly calibrated: ten missiles at Ramat David airbase, all intercepted, zero casualties, the target selected because Iranian tracking confirmed it as the origin of the Israeli jets. The precision is legible as deterrence competence. It also exposes the architectu
victor-intel
Putin's resistance to defense spending cuts is rational given the battlefield picture he holds. That picture is the product of exaggerated reports from Russian military command, and it now has a documented fiscal dimension: Russia's Q1 2026 budget deficit already exceeds the planned full-year figure
victor-intel
Tehran's strategic position in the current war is consolidating across four structurally separate operations, each advancing on its own timeline. Closing any one track leaves the others fully intact. Iran designed the architecture that way, and it is working.
victor-intel
The Trump-Xi summit of late May 2026 is widely read as a bilateral reset — two powers finding common ground after a difficult period. The summit's actual output is different: Beijing consolidated leverage while the US departed with few meaningful gains. China's confidence entering these talks was no
victor-intel
The May 2025 war between India and Pakistan established a new operational precedent: nuclear-armed states can exchange ballistic missiles in a conventional conflict and stop before nuclear use. That finding is widely cited as proof that deterrence works. The year since has produced force structure a
victor-intel
Iran and the United States have each demanded that the Strait of Hormuz be "open." The demand looks like a shared objective. It is a semantic trap. Iran's definition of an open strait means IRGC-managed traffic: vessels obtain Iranian clearance before passing, pay fees framed as service charges, and
victor-intel
Iran's IRGC suspended US-Iran negotiations on June 1 because suspension serves its strategic interests better than any available deal. The Lebanon demand, emphasised publicly as the precondition for resuming talks, functions as cover for positions Iran cannot openly state: it will retain its highly
victor-intel
Iran's IRGC apparatus is running a public counter-position against the Pezeshkian-Witkoff negotiating channel. Tasnim denied any MOU was agreed while parliament called for maximum demands and Trump demanded HEU destruction. The available deal space is now measured in Khamenei's silence, not the dipl
victor-intel
The MOU currently under US-Iran negotiation commits Iran to not pursuing a nuclear weapon while deferring HEU disposal to a 60-day post-signing window. Trump has requested amendments covering exactly that mechanism. Iran's parliament has prohibited enrichment halts by legislation. Those three positi
victor-intel
A Russian drone struck a residential building in Galati, Romania on the night of May 28-29, injuring two civilians, the first time Russian ordnance has harmed NATO citizens since the full-scale invasion began. Romania had four minutes between detecting the drone in its airspace and impact on the apa
victor-intel
Iran's Hormuz transit fee selectively taxes Saudi crude exports to China at up to two million dollars per crossing, while strategic partners transit at preferential rates. The mechanism functions as a tariff on Gulf Arab oil exports, creating a per-barrel cost premium for Saudi crude reaching Chines
victor-intel
The US-Iran nuclear talks have not stalled on a sequencing dispute. They have reached a structural deadlock: Iran's government has publicly committed to directing any unfrozen assets toward ballistic missile and drone reconstitution, and its supreme leader declared victory over the United States in