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The Manager's Deal
Iran exits the Geneva MoU as the recognized manager of the Strait of Hormuz. The HEU stays in Iran. The fees return in 60 days. The ceasefire is real. The settlement is permanent.
HEU
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The Price of Phase Two
Iran's MoU proposal divides the negotiation into two phases, with economic delivery as the entry condition for nuclear talks. Phase 1 requires frozen asset release and acceptance of Hormuz transit fees before Phase 2 begins. Iran determines when Phase 1 is complete. Trump has committed to giving Ira
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The Stalemate Iran Prefers
Iran's IRGC suspended US-Iran negotiations on June 1 because suspension serves its strategic interests better than any available deal. The Lebanon demand, emphasised publicly as the precondition for resuming talks, functions as cover for positions Iran cannot openly state: it will retain its highly
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The Parallel Track
Iran's IRGC apparatus is running a public counter-position against the Pezeshkian-Witkoff negotiating channel. Tasnim denied any MOU was agreed while parliament called for maximum demands and Trump demanded HEU destruction. The available deal space is now measured in Khamenei's silence, not the dipl
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The Sixty-Day Deferral
The MOU currently under US-Iran negotiation commits Iran to not pursuing a nuclear weapon while deferring HEU disposal to a 60-day post-signing window. Trump has requested amendments covering exactly that mechanism. Iran's parliament has prohibited enrichment halts by legislation. Those three positi
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The Kinetic Phase
When both sides cross the kinetic threshold in the same 48-hour window while keeping diplomatic channels nominally open, the frame shifts. Iran's mining of the internationally recognized Strait of Hormuz traffic separation scheme — hours after US strikes on Iranian military assets — eliminated the l