Imposed and Waived in One Order

The Graham Act was due to take effect on 18 October. Two days earlier a single presidential order set its tariffs on Russia and on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, then waived them along with nearly every sanction in the law, until Washington decides otherwise. It came a week after the Russian diesel licence and on the day Brent touched $110. Whether it is a fuel-price measure or a turn in Russia policy, the order does not say.

Congress passed the law named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham with substantial bipartisan support, and Donald Trump signed it on 18 September. Its core was a set of tariffs: 500 percent on Russian goods, and 100 percent on goods from the five biggest buyers of Russian crude and gas, chiefly China and India, for any new purchase from 18 October. It added sanctions on Russian officials, banks, sovereign debt and the shadow fleet.

The order signed on Friday evening writes each of those tariffs into force in its second section and waives every one of them in its fourth. It goes on to waive the sanctions provisions that RFE/RL describes as nearly all of the law's substance. The waivers carry no end date. They last until the President or the Secretary of State decides that further action is appropriate, and the Trade Representative is told to keep watching who buys Russian oil. Existing executive-order sanctions on Russia, and every person already listed under them, stay in force.

All of this is legal. Section 115 of the Act lets the President waive any part of it if he certifies to Congress that doing so serves the national interest and sends a report explaining why. The order says the certification went to Congress. It gives no reason in public, and the report has not been released.

Twenty-eight days separate the signature from the waiver, and seven separate the waiver from the diesel deal. On 9 October Washington licensed Russian diesel imports until April 2027. On 11 October it announced an energy truce that Moscow never confirmed. Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries within days and hit Ryazan on 15 October, which Trump called a disgrace. Reporting has traced limits on Ukraine's Starshield service to the White House, and Kyiv has been warned that intelligence sharing could suffer if the refinery strikes go on.

Two readings fit this sequence. The first is about price. Brent reached $110 on 16 October for the first time since May, Hormuz moved about 12.6 million barrels a day on 13 October against some 17 million before the war, and tariffs that pushed India and China off Russian crude would have sent them bidding for Gulf barrels in a market already short. The midterms are on 3 November. The second reading is about Russia. Oil prices explain the waived tariffs, but they do not explain the waived sanctions on Russian officials, banks and sovereign debt.

Europe is moving the other way. EU leaders said on Friday that a 22nd sanctions package is being prepared, and European governments have refused a US proposal to move frozen Russian assets into a vehicle Washington would control. About €210 billion of those assets sits in the EU.

The next markers are close. The section 115 report, if Congress publishes it, would show which reading the administration itself gives. Purchase data for Russian crude after 18 October will show whether India and China read the waiver as permission.